Several species of tropical fruit flies have been detected in temperate areas of California and other states (California Department of Agriculture (CDFA) data 8), and in the European Union (EU) 9, 10. Their success has been attributed to their wide host range and developmental response and tolerance to environmental variables through phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Tephritid flies have had considerable success in invading new regions of the world, especially tropical and sub-tropical areas. Ongoing concern about the potential of tropical fruit flies to invade US agriculture has led to a substantial development of surveillance and eradication infrastructure starting in the 1930s.Īmong the most important invasive insect species are fruit flies of the family Tephritidae, with the most economically important being from four genera: Ceratitis, Anastrepha, Bactrocera, and Rhagoletis. Natural and agricultural systems worldwide are increasingly threatened by mismanagement, overharvesting, by climate and global change, and by an increasing incidence of invasive species, all of which are related to human population growth and activity. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict the geographic range and relative abundance of these and other invasive species, and to put eradication policies on a scientific basis. Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios).
Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union.
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